The 3 Pendulums of a Society
Political, Economic and Civil Society
If you have never visited St. Augustine, Florida – you should. St. Augustine is the oldest city in the U.S., founded in September 1565. If you have been to St. Augustine, you undoubtedly gazed at the magnificent architecture of the main buildings at the corner of Cathedral Place and St. GEORGE which still form the center of the City today. Two of the original buildings are the Governor’s House – the Political Foundation of the City, and The Cathedral Basilica – the Civil Society Foundation of the City. The Treasury On The Plaza – the Economic Foundation of the City was added in the 1920’s.
These 3 same Foundations still form the 3 parts of a modern society today. I call these “The 3 Pendulums of a Society”. I refer to these 3 Foundations as Pendulums because they are constantly swinging back and forth independently in 3 dimensions. A representation of this dynamic is shown in Figure 1 below.
The Umbrellas of Global Demographics and The Technologies of the Times
The 3 Pendulums exist and swing under The Umbrella of Global Demographics and The Umbrella of The Technologies of the Times. Taken together, the study and analysis of: (1) Global Demographics; (2) The Technologies of the Times; and, (3) The 3 Pendulums of a Society form what I call “The Headwaters of Prophecy”, which can be used to predict the future. “Events to Happen Things to Come Learning to See the Future” is my Leadership Model to predict the future and is covered in Chapter Three. In a previous Blog discussion we discussed Prophecy Must Come Before Vision. Studying, analyzing and interjecting your own innate feel or intuition into The Headwaters of Your Prophecies is the prerequisite work for you as a Leader to complete in order for you to establish and articulate your Vision for your Organization. This same process can be used by individuals to help establish their own life goals and paths to follow.
For a nation so caught up in immigration, it is disappointing to seldom see an article documenting a company or political body considering global demographics as part of any major decision process. Is any CEO or Board of Directors analyzing China’s long term demographics when determining their China strategy? China is approaching its demographic demise, and in spite of the Chinese Communist Party’s desperate attempts to change their demise, there is no fixing it. Our internal JM Prophecies demographic forecasts project China and the U.S. populations crisscrossing by the end of this century at approximately 650 million people. We also forecast Florida to become the largest state in the U.S. by the end of the century, with 60 million people, approximating the then population and economy the size of Japan. How will China deal with its demographic demise? How will Japan? How will their demise impact your company’s Asian strategy? Just saying that is so far away, why bother, is not an answer. These global demographic shifts impact far up the calendar before they are tabulated in census counts. How will the U.S. and Florida prepare for a doubling and tripling, respectively, of their populations?
Current birth rates are dropping across the spectrum of modern societies. Modern birth control and contraceptives started this slide and are part of our society forever. China and the U.S. are no exceptions. But there are two major differences in these two countries regarding birth rates impacting their overall populations. First, I believe the U.S. birth rate will increase as The Serfdoms of Our Times are unraveled in the U.S. Women wanting to become Mothers has not fundamentally changed in the U.S. But economic and society pressures became too great to cope for a generational period. But this will change (the Pendulums just keep swinging back and forth). China however, has no such self-correcting pendulums. Wives in China are increasingly regretting ever getting married, let alone having more children. Second, is the issue of immigration. People will never stop coming to the U.S. And, in varying degrees and directions of pendulum swings, the U.S. will always continue to accept new immigrants. China will never benefit from immigration. Who wants to move to a communist society? Furthermore, it is only a matter of time before China begins to experience internal rebellions which may end in a Balkans style breakup into multiple countries.
The Technologies of the Times
The 3 Pendulums swing upward as new technologies are invented and tend to swing back as those new technologies become commonplace. Fissures arise among 3 Pendulum equilibriums when the individual pendulums adopt new technologies at significantly varying rates. We see this fissure today with: Big Tech. Private industry adoption and integration of the Internet, AI and other electronic technologies has far surpassed our Governments’ adoption and integration at many levels.
Which Pendulum Should Lead the Development of The Technologies of the Times?
For most of our Country’s history, our Federal Government has led the development of new technologies. In recent years the Federal Government has slowed its investment in and development of new leading technologies. In order to maintain our global leadership for democratic pendulums, our Federal Government must regain that tip of the spear for new technology development. We must push that pendulum swing much farther out than it currently exists. In 1941 The U.S. Supreme Court established patent law doctrine that continues to this day through the Court’s “The Flash of Genius”doctrine. Our Country needs a Flash of Genius renaissance. How could such a renaissance get started? We suggest the following starting action points:
- Reimagine and Reposition the Federal Laboratories – Add/Reposition Federal Laboratories for advanced biologics, proteins and polymers. We believe biologics including human and non-human cell therapies and synthetic proteins and polymer inventions will lead The Flash of Genius moments in the 21st Century.
- Prioritize the Invention of Synthetic Raw Materials – Eventually we will deplete naturally occurring and mined raw materials. This century should lead nothing less than an entire rewrite of The Periodic Table of Elements.
- Reimagine and Reposition the Nation’s Land Grant Universities – We must stop and reverse urban sprawl which has created The Serfdoms of Our Times. Eliminating The Serfdoms of Our Times should include Leadership by the Nation’s Land Grant Universities. These Land Grant Universities once led the economic development of Rural America. What better mission than to double down on that history?
Political Pendulum – Democratic or Not
Political Pendulum Under a Democratic Society – Political Pendulums in a democracy swing freely, often resulting in chaos over the short term as its citizens exercise their democratic rights. It’s these chaotic swings that give democracies great strength over time as compared to communist and dictator pendulums. Centrally controlled forms of government simply continue in the same dictated direction, with no natural process to provide corrections.
U.S. Federal Government
AI for Government Services – Benjamin Franklin’s famous insight: “A Republic If You Can Keep It” is still great insight for all of us today. As previously discussed, fissures open among the 3 Pendulums when the Pendulums adopt new technologies at significantly different rates. I don’t think it is an over statement to say our Political Pendulum is struggling today. I believe this is largely due to slow adoption of The Technologies of Our Times by our government and other nonprofit sectors. For example. if you add together the number of U.S., Senators, House of Representatives, President, Vice President, The Supreme Court, plus a few Cabinet Members, it adds up to around 600 people. Can 600 people really provide leadership for 350 – 650 Million People in a 3rd or 4th Industrial Revolution Society without Advanced Feedback and Two-Way Information Systems?
Other fissure examples include a general dissatisfaction with the Federal, State and Local Government and other Nonprofit Institutions and Services. Whether it is Defunding the Police, Election Recalls at all levels, Disputed Election Results, Teachers Unions at odds with Parents, or letting Homeless populations camp in front of multi $million homes, the U.S. populace is not happy with its Government and other nonprofit vendors. When your customers would rather pay for expensive alternatives than get their already provided products for free (Parents paying for private K-12 education) you had better believe you are in trouble as a Provider of services. We are deep in a classic example of what happens when one pendulum gets too technologically far behind another(s). For this reason, JM Prophecies will focus on building AI Systems for Government and Other Nonprofit Services to help these Organizations and Institutions close those fissures in The 3 Pendulums.
Budgets and Spending – It’s hard to select the top issue of our Government’s struggles today. But we believe it is the absolutely out of control budget process. Accordingly, developing AI Systems for governmental budgeting for a Republic will be a priority for us.
Monetary Policy – Monetary policy has become the looked to salvation of our budget and spending woes. There are limits to this salvation. In spite of wishful thinking this reliance on monetary policy will eventually come to an end. We only hope it ends before we squander the U.S. Dollar’s reserve currency status. All crude oil sales around the World are settled in U.S. Dollars. An unintended detrimental consequence of green energy will be to weaken the U.S. Dollar’s de facto World reserve currency status.
- Crypto Currencies – Any discussion of monetary policy today combined with Prophecy must necessarily include a position on crypto currencies. Our position at JM Prophecies regarding crypto currencies is best summarized by repeating Justice Antonin Scalia’s quote: “…some very good people have some very bad ideas”.
Taxation Policies for the 4th Industrial Revolution – The complexity of the U.S. economy and society has surpassed the capability of the Country’s early 20th century taxing system to fund the Government. We recommend the following additions to the current taxation systems.
- Adopt a Deficit Reduction Tax Instead of Raising Interest Rates – When the inevitable shift in monetary policy and increase in interest rates come, we recommend the Federal Reserve be granted the authorization for charging Fees instead of raising interest rates equal to what the increase in interest rates would be and applying those fees directly against outstanding Treasury Securities. The Federal Reserve issuing unprecedented levels of debt and then raising interest rates would be akin to credit card companies getting its credit card customers into high debt levels then increasing interest rates when they cannot even pay their debt at low rates.
- Taxing the Underground and Illegal Economies – We must begin taxing the Country’s underground and illegal economies. Not only will this help raise taxes to address our budget deficits, it can begin to make these illegal economies less lucrative to its participants.
- Time for a National Sales Tax – I believe the best way to tax the underground and illegal economies is to institute a national sales tax. Paid sales taxes could be treated as a credit against income taxes paid by both individuals and corporations when they subsequently file their annual income tax returns. This approach would also serve to tax corporations and individuals that currently pay little or no income taxes.
State and Local Governments
Competition Among State and Local Governments – Political pendulums also exist and swing at the State and Local Government levels. Competition among States and Local Governments is important for effective political policy.
Political Pendulums Under a Non-Democratic Society
Political Pendulums under a non-democratic society, such as Communism or a Dictatorship, do NOT swing freely, and as a result, always eventually fail.
Economic Pendulum – Capitalistic or Not
Monitoring swings of the Economic Pendulum is critical for investors, especially contrarian investors. Investors optimize their returns when they jump on the Economic Pendulum at the height of its upward peak and position themselves On the Inside of the Pendulum to reap the rewards of the pendulum swinging back in the opposite direction.
Smart investors also look for fissures among The 3 Pendulums which inevitably get at least partially filled in by the Economic Pendulum.
The Role of Capitalism in the 3rd and 4th Industrial Revolutions
Much has been written and discussed recently regarding what is the role of capitalism in our Country today and into the future. We believe there have always been and will continue to be the following three lead roles for capitalism in a democratic society.
- Maximizing and Expanding The Technologies of the Times – One of three primary responsibilities for capitalism is to maximize and expand The Technologies of the Times. Examples are building global shipping from sailing to steam to diesel ships; Building out the Internet; Building a commercial nuclear energy industry.
- Identifying and Creating Revenue Streams for All Stakeholders – While maximizing and expanding The Technologies of the Times, capitalism must identify and create new revenue streams for all Stakeholders. Note this responsibility may or may not result in profitable enterprises. In fact, history is filled with examples of early adoption of new technologies that generated significant revenues but did not generate net income. These disruptive technologies will later become more common and generate net profits.
- Identifying and Creating Net Income Opportunities for Shareholders – After new technologies begin to get past their disruptive stages, they then become adopted and maximized by investors and shareholders who require net income to invest. It is also the role of capitalism to make income in the long term for remaining shareholders. Many of the technologies’ inventors, early adopters and early Stakeholders will have long exited by this stage and on to their next “Flash of Genius”.
Civil Society Pendulum – Everything Else
The Civil Society Pendulum includes everything that is not political or economic. The most important segments of The Civil Society Pendulum are discussed below.
Down the street from The Cathedral Basilica in St. Augustine sits the Oldest Schoolhouse in America. It is a small wooden shack but it may well be the most picture selfie popular attraction in St. Augustine. There is something about education that captivates people. Humans are naturally curious beings. At JM Prophecies we categorize education into 3 parts: (1) Knowledge accumulation; (2) Credentialing; and, (3) the “Flashes of Genius” moments.
Religion and Places of Worship (Or Not)
The Spanish Founders of St. Augustine understood the importance of including religion in their society. Unfortunately, the importance of religion has waned in American society over the centuries since St. Augustine was founded. This declining importance of religion has also led to a significant decline in the belief and appreciation of a spiritual foundation for our society. We at JM Prophecies understand the importance of a spiritual foundation. We refer to this spirituality as A Higher Power. Belief in and living under A Higher Power philosophy means more than belief in a single religion. We wrap A Higher Power into our overall decision-making process which will be discussed in our future published works.
Society of Laws
A society’s network of federal, state and local laws and regulations comprise a major part of the Civil Society Pendulum. Breaking the laws of a Civil Society often result in dropping to the bottom of the Wealth Inequality Pyramid. Adverse behaviors, such as breaking society’s laws, can have common problems, and we believe can also have common solutions. For this reason, we have formed JM Prophecies Brain Care to focus on these common problems and solutions. Most adverse behaviors began with a traumatic experience. Trauma often comes from some form of abuse, often at an early age. Trauma can also begin with the sudden loss of a loved one through divorce, death, addiction of a family member or one of many other traumatic experiences.
- Communication Platforms for Coming Together – Communications have always been a major part of any society. Communications have advanced from verbal languages to written languages to constantly advancing electronic communication devices. Advancing electronic communication devices, when properly channeled, can help invert the Wealth Inequality Pyramid and are a focus for us.
- Urban Versus Rural – Eliminating The Serfdoms of Our Times – The large urban areas of the World have become The Serfdoms of Our Times. We believe this trend must be reversed and The Serfdoms unraveled if we are to ever invert the Wealth Inequality Pyramid.
Managing The 3 Pendulum Swings
Fissures in The 3 Pendulum Swings
When The 3 Pendulums are not in synch with one another, they form what we call Fissures among The 3 Pendulums. They each also then attempt to Fill in the Fissures and Compensate for another Slow Swinging or Out-Of-Sync Pendulum. These Fissures can force people to the bottom the Wealth Inequality Pyramid, but they can also open opportunities to those who can identify and take advantage of them.
Positioning Yourself on the Inside of a Pendulum
Swings in The 3 Pendulums create opportunities for contrarian investing. Contrarian investors try to time their entry at the top of pendulum swings and position themselves on the inside of the pendulum so they can see what is coming at them rather than investing in the past.
The Power of Contrarian Thought and Strategy for the Civil Society Pendulum
It is no secret that our Country is split approximately 50:50 on just about any topic you select to debate. Whenever you see 50:50 probability distributions among large sample sizes over broad topics and over a long period of time, those probabilities indicate “Events to Happen” as discussed in Chapter Three, are nowhere near mature, and are subject to tremendous influence to “Things To Come”. Therefore, you can actually Alter The Future by driving your 180-degree contrarian stake in the ground and saying: No, conventional thought is entirely wrong and here is the real answer. This takes courage and conviction of thought.
The Velocity of Pendulum Swings
In the monetary policy World, it is a well-known axiom that increases in the money supply has a velocity of money effect, meaning an increase in say $1 billion has a multiplier effect on the economy of multiples of the original infusion of money. Similarly, The 3 Pendulums of a Society swing back and forth with velocity. The velocity’s coefficient varies with the height and time duration of the Pendulum swings. If you sit idly by and do not attempt to predict the future you will run the risk of being over-run by Pendulum swings. But even worse, if you bet on a Pendulum swing, and bet wrong, your loss will be a multiple of your original bet.
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